The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the southeastern part of the Bay of Bengal, a low-pressure region, became more defined at 5:30 am yesterday in the neighboring South Andaman Sea, and it is anticipated that it will gain further intensity and movement throughout the week.
On May 10, it became a depression over the same area, and subsequently a cyclonic storm over the southeast and surrounding east-central BoB and the Andaman Sea. A cyclonic storm is defined as a system with 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds ranging from 63 to 88 kmph.
IMD predicted that the cyclone would grow further, potentially intensifying into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) by Friday, May 12! A VSCS is the third highest category used by the IMD to designate tropical cyclones, with 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds ranging from 119 to 165 kmph.
The system is forecast to travel north-northwestwards until Thursday, then gradually recurve north-northeastwards before making landfall between Bangladesh and Myanmar on Sunday, May 14. However, because of the vast range in its route and strength among predicting models, the final landfall site remains undetermined.
However, the ECMWF model's track projection has changed further easterly than prior forecasts, implying that the cyclone's impact on Odisha may be less severe than previously expected.
Nonetheless, this developing system will continue to bring very heavy (115.5 mm-204 mm) to extremely severe (204 mm) rainfall and strong gusts (90 kmph) to the Andaman-Nicobar Islands on Thursday (May 11). As a result, they have been placed on an orange alert, which advises residents to 'be prepared' for inclement weather.
Because the system's presence will cause rough sea conditions across the southeast and central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, all regional fishing, shipping, tourism, and other offshore activities have been cancelled for the week.
