According to the Meteorological Department of India, many parts of north and northeastern India is likely to experience heavy rainfall during the next 5 day. It said that a cyclonic circulation is currently over eastern part of Uttar Pradesh and will extend up to the mid-tropospheric levels.
Under the influence of these systems, there will be rainfall in West Bengal, Sub-Himalayas, and the northeast and Sikkim during the next five days.
According to the report, due to strong southwesterly or southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal, the intensity of rainfall in these areas is likely to increase from Wednesday (August 11), further leading to isolated extreme falls over Assam & Meghalaya from August 11-13.
Rainfall is also likely over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during next few days. IMD said that isolated heavy rain to very heavy rain is expected over eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand during next four to five days.
States receiving good rainfall
A few places in Western Madhya Pradesh, Central Maharashtra, Lakshadweep, Chhattisgarh & Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated places in Haryana, Assam, Punjab, Western Rajasthan, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Vidarbha, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan and Goa, Telangana, Karnataka coast, Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast, Kerala and Mahe and Tamil Nadu , Puducherry and Karaikal witnessed good rainfall during the past few days.
According to the IPCC report on climate change, monsoon extremes are expected to increase in India and South Asia, while the frequency of short days of intense rain is expected to increase.
The models also show an extension of the monsoon over India towards the end of the 21st century, with increased monsoon rainfall in South Asia, according to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, identified by 195 Member countries.
According to the report, "continuous forced experiments show that with global warming levels of 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius, the average rainfall and extreme monsoons in India and South Asia are expected to intensify in summer."
The CMIP5 model predicts that the number of strong short-term active days will increase while the number of long-term active days will decrease and there will be no significant change in rest time in India, "the report said.
Rainfall, floods and droughts will also increase. Droughts will be more frequent as the soil will lose moisture.
Krishnan, Executive Directorof Center for Climate Change Research (CCCR) in the Indian Institute of Tropical Research and one co-author said “As the temperature increases, the evaporation of water will increase, which in turn will reduce soil moisture and lead to droughts”.
The southwest monsoon contributes more than 70% of the country's rainfall and is the main driver of an economy still largely dependent on agriculture.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced a series of measures to help people in areas affected by flooding following heavy rains and has set up a task force made up of 12 ministers responsible for the relief work.
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