The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall in isolated areas across various regions of India. Notably, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are expected to witness intense rainfall. Additionally, heavy rainfall is anticipated in Assam, Meghalaya, Saurashtra, Kutch, Rayalaseema, Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.
The monsoon withdrawal line currently passes through several regions including Lakhimpur Kheri, Shivpuri, Kota, Udaipur, and Surendranagar. Favorable conditions are expected to facilitate the further retreat of the monsoon from parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra over the next 2-3 days.
Regarding weather systems, an upper air circulation over southeast Bangladesh continues, leading to the likelihood of a low-pressure area forming over the North Bay of Bengal by October 4. Additionally, a cyclonic circulation currently over the Lakshadweep area could influence weather patterns.
In terms of rainfall distribution, widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely over the Northeast region during the week. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim will experience widespread rainfall for the next two days, followed by scattered rain in the subsequent five days. The Gangetic West Bengal region may see scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, while isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in regions like Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and the northeastern states on October 3 and 4.
In South India, Kerala, Mahe, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are forecasted to receive fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall throughout the week. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe during the next seven days, with South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu experiencing similar conditions from October 3 to 8. Conversely, Northwest, West, and Central India are unlikely to experience significant rainfall over the next week.
Furthermore, the IMD has issued a fisherman warning due to stormy weather over the Gulf of Mannar and the east-central Bay of Bengal, with wind speeds expected to reach 35-45 kmph, gusting up to 55 kmph. It is recommended that fishermen stay out of these locations during this time.
