A cyclonic circulation exists over the South-East Bay of Bengal and is expected to travel west-northwestwards towards the coast of Tamil Nadu during the next 4-5 days. A trough extends from the cyclonic circulation to the Tamil Nadu coast.
During the next five days, light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall is expected across Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Mahe, Puducherry, and Karaikal. Isolated heavy rain is expected in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal over the next few days, as well as in Kerala and Mahe on Thursday and Friday.
Cold wave over North
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on these two days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) this morning.
Meanwhile, minimal western disturbance activity and accompanying warmth has begun a cold spell across North-West India, with the IMD projecting cold wave conditions over Punjab, Haryana, and north Rajasthan for the next two days before lifting.
As anticipated in these columns on Sunday, dense to moderate fog spread out in isolated pockets across West Bengal and Sikkim's plains, while shallow fog lingered over isolated pockets over Jammu and Kashmir. At Cooch Behar (50 metre), Gangtok (200 metre), and Srinagar, visibility was decreased to 500 metres or less (500 metre).
Temperature trends
A detailed forecast stated that no substantial change in minimum (night) temperatures is predicted over most parts of North-West India during the next two days, followed by a steady rise of 2-3 degrees Celsius thereafter. Over the next two days, nighttime temperatures in Madhya Pradesh may drop by 2-4 degrees Celsius under cloudless skies, with no major change beyond that.
Minimum temperatures are expected to fall by 2-4 degrees Celsius throughout East India and Gujarat state during the next 3-4 days, while there will be no substantial change over Maharashtra over the next two days, however they may fall by 2-3 degrees Celsius thereafter. Over the next 4-5 days, no substantial change in minimum temperatures is predicted throughout the rest of the country.
Shallow to moderate fog
During this period, there is a chance of shallow to moderate fog in isolated places across North-West India. An extended outlook for November 27 to 29 predicted widespread light to moderate rainfall throughout the South Peninsula, with isolated heavy showers over north Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Heavy rain fell over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam in the 24 hours which ended this morning (Monday). A beneficial trough extends from a persistent well-defined low-pressure region across West-Central and the adjoining South-West Arabian Sea to the coast of North Maharashtra.
