A cyclonic circulation has formed in the east-central Bay of Bengal and is expected to get organized in the next two days or so. In the meantime, the remnants of the strongest storm of 2018, Mangkhut as a low pressure area is moving across China. The system is expected to move towards Myanmar before finally going into the Bay of Bengal.
When the system reaches the Bay of Bengal, it is likely to merge with the existing circulation, further strengthening it into a low pressure area in the next 48 hours or so. In fact, there are chances that the system may see further intensification into a well marked low and even a depression while it remains at sea.
The weather system is expected to affect the coastline of West Bengal first along with Odisha, Andhra Pradesh. The peripherals of the system will bring rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Bihar as well. Even Northeast India will see some good showers with isolated heavy rains during this time.
After crossing coast, the system will have a long journey of about four to five days over land. The moment the system moves inland, it is expected to affect Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra along with Telangana.
The weather system will further move westwards and give rainfall over Gujarat and Konkan and Goa along with some parts of Rajasthan as well.
By next week, when the system is close to Rajasthan, the northern parts of the country will brace for some moderate to heavy rains with a few extremely heavy showers due to its interaction with the Western Disturbance which will prevail over the Western Himalayas.
Therefore, parts of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh along with Rajasthan will see some good showers. Due to these rains, Monsoon withdrawal will also be arrested hence being delayed further.
Gujarat remained among one of the poorest performers during this Monsoon season. However, rains in Saurashtra & Kutch were much poorer than Gujarat region. In fact, as of today, Gujarat region is rain deficient by 23% and Saurashtra & Kutch are deficient by 31%.
The initial rain deficiency was on account of late arrival of Monsoon over the state and later on carried on due to infrequent visit of Monsoon systems, which led its rain deficiency to increase further.
Now, towards the fag end of Monsoon season, there is a possibility of rains to pay a visit over Gujarat this weekend, as a well-marked low-pressure area is seen in the Bay of Bengal which is further likely to become more marked and move inland.
Rains of more intensity will be observed Gujarat than Saurashtra & Kutch. Therefore, in the coming two to three days, moderate rains with few heavy spells are expected over Gujarat region. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains will occur in Saurashtra & Kutch.
Moreover, we can also say that due to these good rains, rain deficiency for the state may also drop marginally. Along with this, day temperatures will also drop significantly, making the weather conditions over Gujarat comfortable.
NCR has been witnessing dry and warm weather conditions since last week. Sky has been absolutely clear, leading to bright sunshine.
According to Skymet Weather, the western end of axis of Monsoon trough is running close to the foothills of Himalayas. As a result, dry and warm winds from northwest direction have led to rise in the day temperatures.
We expect this dry weather to continue until September 21. However, weather conditions are all set to change by weekend. By September 22, rains would once again make an appearance over the national capital and adjoining areas of Gurugram, Noida, Faridabad and Ghaziabad.
Source : skymetweather.com
