According to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin, the southwest monsoon continues to recede from India's northern western areas. A cyclonic circulation also exists over the north Andaman Sea and its surroundings, as does another over the east-central Arabian Sea.
With these circumstances, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in four states and union territories (UTs), including Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Maharashtra, Kerala, and Mahe in Puducherry.
Kerala's Idukki, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, and Ernakulam districts have already received an orange alert from the IMD. In four districts — Thiruvananthapuram, Malappuram, Palakkad, and Kozhikode – a yellow alert has been issued. Due to the likelihood of severe rainfall induced by two low depressions in the Bay of Bengal, several areas have been placed on alert till October 13.
According to the latest IMD bulletin, circumstances are favorable for further southwest monsoon withdrawal from certain areas of Chhattisgarh, Gujarat; some parts of Maharashtra, Odisha, and West Bengal; and the majority of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand during the next two days.
Meanwhile, the cyclonic storm over the Andaman Sea is expected to trigger the creation of a low-pressure system in the same location over the next 36 hours.
"It is anticipated to grow more noticeable and move west northwestwards towards the coastlines of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh during the next four to five days," the IMD said in its bulletin.
Furthermore, the cyclonic storm which lies over the Arabian Sea is "quite likely to persist for the next three to four days."
Under the aforementioned influences, the following are key IMD alerts for four states and UTs till October 15:
1. Due to the cyclonic storm over the Andaman Sea, light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms and heavy to very heavy rains are expected across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands till October 15.
2. Until October 15, southern peninsular India is predicted to experience fairly widespread to widespread, light to moderate rainfall with isolated severe downpours. Similar weather is expected in Maharashtra till October 13, according to the IMD.
3. According to the IMD bulletin updates, isolated very heavy rainfall is quite possible between October 12 and 14 across Kerala and Mahe in Puducherry.
