Later this week, scattered to fairly widespread/moderate rains are expected to break out over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam, in an unusual turn of weather events for February-March, though picked up by models in time.
This will occur as a rare low-pressure area forms over the South-East Bay of Bengal and the adjoining South Andaman Sea by tomorrow (Monday), according to an update issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) this (Sunday) morning.
Cyclonic Circulation
By this evening, a causative cyclonic circulation will move in from the Malacca Strait and emerge over the South Andaman Sea. Today is expected to be a wet day in isolated areas of the Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) may threaten the larger Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The APEC Climate Centre in Busan, South Korea, has already forecast a wetter-than-usual pre-monsoon season (March to May) for India this year. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the United States, the developing wet weather will last until March 7 (Monday next) and will continue with less intensity into the following week. By the end of that week, it also expects new development over the South-East Bay.
Weather Warning
The IMD has issued a weather warning for squally weather (winds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr, almost depression strength) over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining South-East Bay today and tomorrow (Sunday and Monday). Fishermen are advised not to enter these areas.
Tomorrow (Monday), heavy rain is expected to continue over the Nicobar Islands, while thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds (40-50 km/hr) are expected to form over the rest of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) is expected to persist for a second day over the South Andaman Sea and the adjacent South-East Bay. Fishermen are cautioned not to enter these areas.
Getting Closer to TN Coast
The rough weather pattern with squalls (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may begin to cover further West and cover the South-East and adjoining South-West Bay, closer to the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts, on Tuesday.
The following day (March 2), the IMD forecasts heavy rain in Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, as well as squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay. Fishermen are not permitted to enter these waters. These conditions will continue into the next day (Thursday).
Thunderstorms Alert for East India
The unusually wet weather will spread further West and North into Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Kerala, and Mahe from March 4-6 (Friday to Sunday). Heavy rain is expected in Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal. Squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) is possible in the South-West and adjoining South-East Bays, and fishermen are advised to exercise caution.
Meanwhile, there is a lot of weather going on in North-West India, with a western disturbance passing over Bathinda and the surrounding area in Punjab. It will bring isolated light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, and lightning to Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Chhattisgarh until tomorrow (Monday).
