A western disturbance exists as a cyclonic circulation across Pakistan and neighbouring Iran, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). These WDs are essentially low-pressure systems that form over the Mediterranean Sea and migrate westward, collecting moisture that is eventually dumped over North India.
This system may bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and/or snowfall of light to moderate intensity, as well as thunderstorms and lightning, to Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand from Thursday through Sunday (April 27-30).
This inclement weather will spread to the neighbouring northwestern plains, with isolated to scattered rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds blowing at 30-40 kmph expected from Thursday to Sunday (April 27-30) across Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, and Rajasthan.
Furthermore, dust storms are possible in Rajasthan during the forecast period, while isolated hailstorms are possible in Himachal for the next 48 hours. Raindrops are driven upward into extremely cold parts of the sky, resulting in hailstorms. This causes them to freeze, and when the updrafts can no longer sustain their weight, hail falls.
Given these forecasts, the IMD's regional met centre in New Delhi has issued a yellow notice for the Western Himalayan Region over the next five days, as well as a four-day yellow watch for bordering Northwest India beginning Thursday. Residents are urged to 'be alert' of the local weather situation and arrange their outside activities accordingly, according to the advisory.
These moist conditions will assist keep regional temperatures normal to below average during this forecast period, ensuring that no heatwaves affect the country's northern regions until May. Meanwhile, April has been an extraordinarily wet month in both North and Northwest India, and the impending rainfall in the final week will just add to the month's rain totals.
Between April 1 and 25, Himachal (87.9 mm), Uttarakhand (54.8 mm), Punjab (24 mm), and Haryana (13.7 mm) all saw 'significant excess' precipitation compared to their long-term average values for this period. Rajasthan experienced 'extra' rain (5.8 mm), whereas Jammu-Kashmir (87 mm) and Delhi (11.4 mm) received 'normal' but slightly above-average rainfall during this time period.
