On Friday, the South-West monsoon made landfall in parts of the South-West Bay of Bengal, the majority of the South-East Bay of Bengal, the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands, and some parts of the North Andaman Sea.
This is the usual arrival time over the South Andaman Sea and the South-East Bay. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the much-anticipated onset over mainland India along the Kerala coast will occur about May 31, with a model error of +4 or-4 days.
With a model error of +2 or -2 days, private forecaster Skymet Weather anticipates the onset over Kerala on May 30. The monsoon's advance into the Andamans has no bearing on the onset of the rains in Kerala or the amount of rain that falls on the mainland.
Increased Bay Flows
In the meantime, the IMD said on Friday that the strengthening and deepening of the south-westerly winds set in motion by the former extremely severe cyclone Tauktae in the Arabian Sea, as well as widespread rainfall activity, aided the monsoon's advance across its eastern gateway in the Bay of Bengal.
The northern extent of the monsoon associated a line that ran through the south-east of Sri Lanka, the Madurai latitude in the South-East Bay of Bengal, and Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
There will be a low-pressure area
During the next two days, the IMD expects the monsoon to advance further through more parts of the South-West Bay, remaining parts of the South-East Bay, the entire Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and parts of the Central Bay.
A cyclonic circulation will develop over the South-East and adjacent Central Bay today, deepening into a low-pressure region over the East-Central Bay and adjacent North Andaman Sea.
It's expected to pass north-west and develop quickly into a cyclone by Monday. The cyclone would also pass to the north-west, intensify, and enter the North Bay near the Odisha-West Bengal coasts by Wednesday morning, according to the IMD, which did not specify a landfall point on the coast.
Bay is under a high wind alert
From Friday onwards, squally winds of 40 to 50 km/hr with gusts up to 60 km per hour can prevail over the South-East Bay and South Andaman Sea, according to a high wind warning. Today, a similar warning is in effect over the Andaman Sea and the East-Central and South-East Bay.
From Monday, winds can gust to 65 km/hr over the East-Central Bay and adjoining North Andaman Sea, and further to 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr over the East-Central Bay and adjoining North Andaman Sea. From Monday through Tuesday, gale force winds of 65-75 km/hr with gusts to 85 km/hr are possible over the Central Bay.
Tauktae's remaining power is dwindling
The Bay cyclone follows closely behind the extremely strong cyclone Tauktae, whose remnants traveled a long way from their landfall point along the Gujarat coast and were discovered on Friday, weakened several times as a cyclonic circulation but not before raining it down across North and North-West India.
The IMD predicts light to moderate rainfall across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Sunday, with strong to very heavy falls in isolated areas. Most places in Odisha and West Bengal can see light to moderate rainfall beginning Tuesday, along with falling temperatures. Following that, the rains would become more widespread and intense.
