The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that the monsoon 2020 will be 102 percent of the long-term average, which suggests that it will be ‘above normal’. In the gloomy times when the farmers are concerned about the nationwide lockdown and its significant impacts on the supply chain, the monsoon predictions have brought a sigh of relief to them.
The monsoon season in India plays a significant role in the agriculture industry. Many farmers rely on the rainfall for the irrigation of their crops, especially the Kharif growers. The rains are critical for crops like paddy, maize, pearl millet, pigeon pea, black gram, sugarcane, and soybean among others. As IMD predicts normal monsoon, the growers of these crops can expect a good crop yield.
According to IMD, the monsoon 2020 starts from June and will end by September, and many states are going to receive more than 100 percent rainfall. The monsoon has arrived over Kerala and several weather stations have reported abundant rainfall as of now.
As per Madhavan Rajeevan, India’s earth sciences secretary, the probability distribution is inclined towards normal and above normal this year, which is a good sign. Moreover, the sea surface temperature conditions in the central Pacific Ocean can turn favorable for the monsoon in India, he added.
Region-wise Monsoon Predictions
IMD has also announced some region-wise predictions for the monsoon 2020. In northwest India, 107 percent of rainfall is expected while in the central India farmers can expect 103 percent rainfall. The southern peninsular region and eastern and northeastern region can expect 102 and 96 percent rainfall, respectively.
Going by some experts, the monsoon forecast is encouraging but caution is required. That’s because there has been a disruption in the supply-chains due to the months of nationwide lockdown, which has hit many farmers who might need to borrow for the sowing of seeds for the coming season.
“For almost every crop today, farm labor makes up the substantial cost of cultivation. The oversupply of available labor might marginally lower costs for farmers. What this means is that the plight of landless farm workers is likely to worsen, and the marginal improvement in the labor costs could well be offset by lack of markets and prices at the end of the season or something else during production,” says Kavitha Kuruganti with the Alliance for Sustainable and Holistic Agriculture.
