India is currently grappling with a substantial rainfall deficit of more than 50% during the ongoing southwest monsoon season. The monsoon arrived a week later than usual, commencing on June 8, and its progress has been hindered since June 11 due to the impact of Cyclone Biparjoy. While some areas are expected to receive increased precipitation in the coming week, concerns remain about the country's southern and eastern regions, which are anticipated to face further delays in monsoon advancement.
The Indian Meteorological Department's Director-General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, cautioned on Wednesday that the monsoon is likely to advance into additional sections of the southern and eastern parts of the country between June 18 and 21. Although Cyclone Biparjoy has assisted to some extent in advancing the monsoon, its effect is expected to persist in these regions for the mentioned period.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) has remained stalled since June 11, except for some progress observed on June 12 when it reached Ratnagiri, Koppal, Puttaparthi, Shriharikota, Malda, and Forbesganj. The India Meteorological Department stated in its daily bulletin that fairly widespread to light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorms is expected to continue over northeastern India, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka from June 19 to 21.
The IMD's predictions indicate isolated to scattered rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and interior Karnataka. Additionally, there may be isolated rainfall over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India.
According to the IMD, the country received 26.6 mm of rainfall from June 1 to 14, which is 53% below the normal average for this period. The eastern and northeastern regions have experienced a 48% rainfall deficit, while the deficit stands at 20% in the northwest, 73% in the central region, and 54% in the southern peninsula. Only 23% of the country's geographical areas, representing 10 states and union territories, have received either normal or higher rainfall, leaving 559 out of 717 districts with deficient or no rainfall so far.
Gujarat, which previously suffered from a 65% rainfall deficiency until June 12, has experienced a surplus of 9% due to pre-cyclonic rains received in the last two days. Officials reported 9.6 mm of rainfall on June 12 (compared to the normal average of 2.7 mm) and 10.4 mm of rainfall on June 13 (compared to the normal average of 2.8 mm) in Gujarat.
In contrast, Punjab, a highly irrigated state, has received rainfall that is 57% above normal, which bodes well for paddy and other Kharif crops this year. The sowing of paddy is scheduled to begin after June 20 in the state, and the surplus rainfall is expected to benefit agricultural activities.
As India continues to grapple with the delayed monsoon and the impacts of Cyclone Biparjoy, meteorological authorities and agricultural stakeholders closely monitor the weather patterns and anticipate a more favourable distribution of rainfall in the coming weeks to mitigate the overall deficit and support the country's agricultural sector.
