India and 12 other high-emitting countries could be on the verge of suffering catastrophic effects from climate change, according to a new report from global risk intelligence provider Verisk Maplecroft. According to their findings, unless significant changes are made to current emissions trajectories, 13 out of the 30 countries responsible for nearly 90% of global carbon emissions could be on the brink of facing severe climate-related impacts, particularly from rising temperatures.
The Climate Hazard Index, a component of the Climate Risk Dataset, forewarns those countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the UAE are poised to bear the brunt of climate-related adversities if current emission trends persist. This revelation challenges the conventional narrative that portrays countries solely as either perpetrators or victims of climate change. Instead, it unveils a disconcerting overlap between nations driving carbon emissions and those most vulnerable to its catastrophic repercussions.
The countries that are most likely to experience the negative effects of climate change include Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Climate Hazard Index, which is a part of the Climate Risk Dataset. Even while China and the United States, the two biggest emitters, may escape the worst consequences, they are not entirely immune to the effects of climate change.
This findings casts doubt on the traditional narrative that suggests nations as either the cause or the effect of climate change. Rather, it highlights a striking convergence of those most at danger from the catastrophic effects of climate change and those accountable for the majority of carbon emissions.
The report indicates that over a third of the world's major emitters face significant physical climate risks by the end of the century, even if global efforts to reduce emissions continue. This includes countries like Malaysia, Iraq, Mexico, and Australia, which may experience poorer outcomes under various emissions scenarios.
Furthermore, the analysis pairs physical risk scenarios with transition risk scenarios, highlighting how policy decisions in the coming years will impact future climate risks. According to the report, countries like Egypt, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil are expected to endure some of the most significant impacts under all scenarios, underscoring the urgency for immediate emissions reductions.
The shift to cleaner energy sources is crucial in order to reduce emissions quickly and prevent catastrophic consequences. However, the transition to a low-carbon future may face resistance from fossil fuel producers, particularly in regions like the Middle East, where the benefits are less clear-cut. Such resistance could undermine international climate negotiations and delay much-needed action.
One of the most pressing threats highlighted in the report is the rise in extreme heat, which poses a significant risk to economic activity and human life in vulnerable countries. The analysis predicts a substantial increase in episodes of extreme heat by 2080, particularly in regions like Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Brazil.
Extreme heat not only damages infrastructure but also poses health risks, especially for those working in outdoor sectors such as agriculture and construction. Recent research suggests that safe temperature limits for heat stress may be lower than previously thought, further exacerbating the risk.
The report warns of both domestic and global consequences if action is not taken swiftly. A delayed energy transition could lead to decreased productivity, increased mortality rates, and potential political or migration crises, particularly in middle-income nations with limited adaptive capacity.
The upcoming COP30 meeting takes on greater relevance as the world struggles with the harsh reality of climate change. The convergence of 'drivers' and 'sufferers' of climate change highlights the need for collective action and renewed commitment to combating this threat. With key elections looming on the horizon, the path to global carbon reductions may become even more complicated in the coming years.
The findings of the analysis underscore the urgent need for collective action to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Without immediate and decisive measures to reduce emissions, the world risks facing unprecedented environmental, social, and economic challenges in the decades to come.
