According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure area that emerged over central parts of the South Bay of Bengal on March 15 is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by March 21.
Between March 18 and 22, rainfall warnings were issued across the south Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and wind warnings were issued from March 16 to 23. The IMD has suggested a complete suspension of fishing and tourist activities from March 19 to 22, as well as a suspension of offshore activities from March 20 to 22.
On March 18, most places will have light to moderate rainfall/thunderstorms, with isolated areas seeing significant rainfall, while on March 19 isolated areas will experience extremely heavy rainfall. On March 20 and 21, most areas could experience mild to moderate rainfall/thunderstorms, with heavy to very heavy rainfall in a few locations and extremely high rainfalls in isolated areas over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. On March 22, most areas will have mild to moderate rainfall/thunderstorms, with isolated areas experiencing heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. This is most likely across the Andaman Islands.
The IMD stated in a special message issued on March 16 afternoon that a low-pressure system has formed over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal in the evening of March 15, and lay centered over central parts of south Bay of Bengal as of 8.30 am on March 16.
Around March 19 in the morning the low-pressure region is expected to travel east-northeastwards and become a well-defined low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south the Andaman Sea. After that, it is expected to travel north-northwestward along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, intensifying into a depression by March 20 morning and a cyclonic storm by March 21. It would continue to move north-northwestwards till March 22, when it would turn north-northeastwards and arrive close to Bangladesh and the adjoining north Myanmar coast by March 23 in the morning, according to the IMD.
Fishermen are urged not to venture towards the central parts of the South Bay of Bengal and the adjacent Equatorial Indian Ocean on March 16, or into the southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea on March 17 and 18. They have also been urged not to venture into the southeast Bay of Bengal between March 19 and 21, as well as into the Andaman Sea and along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between March 19 and 22. Fishermen are urged not to enter into the east-central Bay of Bengal from March 21 to March 23, or the northeast Bay of Bengal on March 22 and 23.
Strong winds of up to 40-50 kmph with gusts up to 60 kmph are expected over the central parts of the South Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean on March 16 and over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining south Andaman Sea on March 17 and 18.
Squally winds of 45-55 kmph with gusts up to 65 kmph are expected to dominate across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Sea, and the southeast Bay of Bengal on March 19. On March 20, squally winds of 55-65 kmph with gusts up to 75 kmph are expected to dominate across the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Sea, and the neighboring southeast Bay of Bengal beginning in the morning and progressively increasing thereafter.
Gale winds with speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph are very likely to prevail over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, east central Bay of Bengal and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on March 21, over east central Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Islands, north
The IMD has said that impact from the depression could include localized flooding of roads, inundation, and water logging in low-lying areas, possible damage to vulnerable structures, localized landslides/mudslides, and damage to crops.
