The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala around May 31, marking the beginning of a four-month rainy season essential for India's agriculture-driven economy. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that while there is a margin of error of four days, this predicted arrival aligns closely with the historical average.
Currently, the southwest monsoon is expected to advance over the South Andaman Sea, parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by Sunday, May 19. Historically, the monsoon onset in Kerala has shown significant variability, with the earliest recorded arrival on May 11, 1918, and the latest on June 18, 1972. Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on June 8.
The IMD has also predicted isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka from May 16 to 20, and over Coastal Karnataka from May 17 to 19. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Rayalaseema are expected to receive heavy rainfall on May 16, while Lakshadweep may experience heavy showers from May 19 to 20.
The above-average monsoon forecast is particularly beneficial for India's agricultural sector, where over half of the net cultivated land depends on monsoon rains. Adequate and timely rainfall is vital for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.
A cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area, adjacent south Tamil Nadu coast, and a trough extending to Lakshadweep will influence weather conditions. These systems are expected to bring widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and south Karnataka in the coming week. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, and Rayalaseema are also likely to experience light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Specifically, isolated very heavy rainfall is anticipated over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal from May 17 to 19; Kerala and Mahe from May 18 to 19; and South Interior Karnataka from May 18 to 20. Additionally, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecasted for Tamil Nadu on May 16 and 20, and Kerala on May 20.
Moreover, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Gujarat are likely to see isolated light rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds, while the Andaman and Nicobar Islands can expect scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next week.
