In December 2022, the rain deficit was nearly 100%. The dry spell has caused a 20-25 percent loss in rabi crops - wheat and vegetables - in rainfed areas, which account for 75 percent of cultivable land, according to B R Takhi, director of agriculture.
However, if the region receives rain or snow by January 14-15, the losses could be reduced by 10-15%, he added. Wheat is grown on 3.30 lakh hectares in the state, with a production target of 6.17 lakh MT (metric tonne), while vegetables will be grown on 82,000 hectares, with a production target of 17.59 lakh MT.
The bright side is that the local meteorological (MeT) office has forecast rain or snow in the region for the next four days, from January 11 to January 14, 2023, as a new western disturbance is expected to affect the state beginning Tuesday night.
Surender Paul, Director, local MeT office, Shimla, said that light to moderate snowfall or rain is likely at many places in the mid and higher hills from January 11 to 13, and light to moderate rains or snow on January 14. Heavy rain/snow may occur at isolated places in Chamba, Kangra, Mandi, Kullu, Shimla, Lahaul and Spiti, and Kinnaur districts on January 12.
With the Met predicting snowfall in Shimla, the state capital's tourism industry is banking on a large number of visitors to the queen of hills.
There is a chance that essential services like water, electricity, and communications will be disrupted, while visibility will be low and the risk of landslides will be higher, according to the MeT office, which also warned of thunderstorms and lightning at isolated locations in the lower and mid hill on January 11.
Thunderstorms and lightning are also expected in isolated locations over the plains and mid hills on January 12, as well as heavy rains or snow in the mid and higher hills, according to the MeT office. Meanwhile, minimum and maximum temperatures increased slightly across the state on Tuesday and remained above normal.
Keylong in the tribal Lahaul and Spiti district recorded the coldest temperatures in the region, with -2.7 degrees Celsius, while Kusumseri and Kalpa recorded -1.9 degrees Celsius and zero degrees Celsius, respectively.
