The global food import bill is projected to surpass USD 2 trillion in 2024, a 2.2% increase over the previous year, driven largely by rising prices for cocoa, coffee, and tea, according to the latest Food Outlook report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Import costs for these commodities alone are expected to rise by 22.9%, fueled by adverse weather and logistical issues. Cocoa prices surged to nearly four times their ten-year average, while coffee prices doubled and tea prices rose 15% above usual levels.
The report highlights the significant economic role these exports play in various countries. For instance, in nations such as Burundi and Ethiopia, coffee exports generate almost 40% of their food import funding, while Sri Lanka’s tea exports cover more than half of its food import bill. Côte d'Ivoire, a major cocoa exporter, uses its cocoa earnings to completely offset its food import costs.
While the cost of importing these specific commodities rises, other areas show some relief, particularly for lower-income nations. The report notes a decrease in the cost of cereals and oilseeds, which could benefit countries that rely heavily on these staples. Notably, high-income countries will bear the brunt of rising costs with a 4.4% increase in their food import bills, accounting for two-thirds of the total. In contrast, the import bills for upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries are expected to decline.
Alongside this, the FAO report highlights the impact on olive oil prices, mostly produced around the Mediterranean. In Spain’s Jaen region, wholesale prices for cold-pressed extra virgin olive oil reached USD 9,818 per tonne in early 2024 due to high temperatures that halved production for two consecutive years. Although Spain’s 2024 harvest is expected to exceed its 10-year average, high prices are likely to constrain global consumption. The FAO also emphasizes the need for sustainable water and soil practices for olive growers, with potential government support like insurance schemes to mitigate climate impacts.
The Food Outlook also reports notable fertilizer price trends, including sharp declines in nitrogen and potassium fertilizers, although phosphate prices remain high due to trade barriers. However, rising conflicts in the Near East could disrupt fertilizer supplies, especially affecting Latin America and Asia. To support sustainable farming, the FAO highlights the potential for low-carbon ammonia in nitrogen fertilizers, though wider adoption will require incentives to manage the costs of renewable energy sources in production.
The FAO Food Outlook is published twice a year and provides updated forecasts on the production, trade, and stock levels of key food staples while exploring topics that affect global food systems.
