Rain is essential for crop growth, as it provides the water needed for plants to absorb nutrients and develop. However, the lack of rain in August has forced farmers in Eastern Uttar Pradesh to use groundwater to keep their crops alive. Consequently, the rain showers in September have been dubbed "Amrit Sanjeevani" by a local farmer.
Irregular Rain
In June, there was a 10.1% rainfall deficit due to irregular monsoon patterns, causing concern for agriculture. However, July brought relief with a 12.6% above-average rainfall, benefiting kharif crop planting. August, the driest since 1901, saw a worrisome 36.2% rainfall deficit, causing severe moisture stress in already sown crops. Typically, July and August provide ample monsoon rainfall for crops, but this year, farmers relied on dam releases and groundwater. Major reservoirs saw a 25.9% decline in water levels by September 6, compared to the previous year. Fortunately, September's 18.7% surplus rainfall improved the situation, raising water levels to 126.463 BCM, albeit still below last year's levels.
Benign Effects
The September rainfall has proven to be highly beneficial for oilseed crops, particularly soybeans and groundnuts, which are due for harvest by the end of this month. Earlier, the Indore-based Soyabean Processors Association of India issued a warning on August 29, stating that the lack of immediate rainfall would adversely affect the crop and lead to lower yields. However, the timely arrival of the monsoon has seemingly averted this possibility.
A reasonably good kharif harvest, coupled with record imports, is expected to alleviate any concerns about inflation in vegetable oil prices. India's edible oil imports are on track to exceed 16.5 million tonnes by the end of October 2023, surpassing the previous record of 15.1 million tonnes set in 2016-17. Import prices for crude palm oil have declined to around $860 per tonne, down from the July average of $945, while soybean prices have similarly fallen to $990 from $1,085, and sunflower oil prices have dropped to $885 from $1,000.
Inflationary pressures in the vegetable sector have also eased, as evidenced by the sharp increases in the consumer price index for vegetables in July (37.4% year-on-year) and August (26.1%). These high inflation rates are expected to decrease significantly this month.
