A cyclonic circulation formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal earlier this morning, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). It will now have an impact on the establishment of a low-pressure area over the same region around Monday morning (May 8). By Tuesday (May 9), the low will have intensified into a depression.
While the system is still in the low-pressure and depression phases, it is likely to cause mild to moderate rains in most areas of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from Monday to Friday (May 8-12).
The Islands may also have isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5 mm to 204 mm) from Monday to Tuesday (May 8-11), as well as scattered heavy to very heavy rains with isolated extremely heavy downpours (204 mm) on Wednesday (May 10).
Furthermore, the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjacent portions of the Andaman Sea and the Islands may have squally winds gusting to 60 kmph on Sunday and 50-60 kmph on Monday and Tuesday. Wind speeds would increase to 60-70 kmph on Wednesday, with gusts reaching 80 kmph over the southeast and adjacent central Bay of Bengal.
As the regional conditions worsen, the seas will become very choppy as we move deeper into next week. As a result, fishermen are warned not to enter into southeast BoB after Sunday and central BoB after Tuesday. From May 8 to 12, tourism, shipping, and offshore activities in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands will be suspended or restricted.
As per IMD, the depression may subsequently grow into a Cyclone Storm around Wednesday (May 10), after which it will be called 'Mocha'.
Mocha is forecast to continue heading northward after transforming into a cyclone. Early indicators show it will make landfall over Myanmar, although there is still some uncertainty because to the vast range in its route and strength among models.
