A recent study has brought attention to the possibility of significant crop failures in multiple important agricultural regions around the world due to climate change. The United Nations has also issued a warning, stating that without immediate action, we may face a bleak future. Scientists are urging everyone to take this report as a serious wake-up call regarding the threat climate change poses to our food systems.
The study published in a journal, Nature Communications, conducted by scientists from the United States and Germany. They examined the likelihood of simultaneous low crop yields in several major food-producing regions. Such events can lead to increased prices, food insecurity, and even civil unrest, according to Kai Kornhuber, the lead author of the study and a researcher at Columbia University and the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Kornhuber emphasized that the rising concentration of greenhouse gases is pushing us into uncharted territory, making it difficult to accurately predict the types of extreme events we will face. The study reveals that these concurrent events are often underestimated and highlight the need for urgent action.
To conduct the research, the scientists analyzed observational and climate model data from 1960 to 2014 and made projections for the period between 2045 and 2099 says the media.
Crop Failures
The researchers initially examined the influence of the jet stream, which is responsible for shaping weather patterns in crucial crop-producing regions worldwide. They discovered that when the jet stream meanders extensively, forming large wave-like patterns, significantly affects key agricultural areas in North America, Eastern Europe, and East Asia, leading to harvest reductions of up to seven percent. The researchers also observed a connection between such meandering jet stream patterns and simultaneous crop failures in the past.
To illustrate, in 2010, the fluctuation of the jet stream contributed to both extreme heat in parts of Russia and devastating floods in Pakistan, causing detrimental impacts on crop yields, as explained by Kornhuber.
The study also assessed the accuracy of computer models in evaluating these risks. It revealed that while the models effectively depict the atmospheric movement of the jet stream, they underestimate the severity of the resulting extremes on the ground.
Kornhuber emphasized that the study serves as a wake-up call regarding the uncertainties surrounding the impact of climate change on the food sector. As weather extremes become more frequent and intense, and combinations of different extremes grow more complex, it is crucial to be prepared for these complex climate risks in the future. Currently, the models do not fully capture these complexities, he told the media.
