The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has increased India's cotton output projection for the year 2022-23 to 311.18 lakh bales (each weighing 170 kg).
This revision came after a meeting of cotton stakeholders convened by the trade body in Mumbai on July 10 to determine a more accurate estimate.
In May, CAI had initially projected a lower cotton output of 298.65 lakh bales, the lowest since 2008-09. However, the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption had estimated a higher output of 343.47 lakh bales for the same year.
During the meeting, CAI members, including the crop committee, discussed pressing data provided by state associations and inputs from other stakeholders.
All cotton arrivals for 2022-23 were reported as 281.98 lakh bales, with 171.73 lakh bales in the Central zone, 65.12 lakh bales in the South zone, and 38.95 lakh bales in the North zone. The estimated total cotton availability for the year is 315.98 lakh bales, which includes 10 lakh bales of imports until June 30, 2023, and 24 lakh bales of opening stock. Cotton consumption is estimated at 238 lakh bales, with 13.50 lakh bales of exports until June 30, 2023.
On a global scale, the US Department of Agriculture has also revised India's cotton production to 331.18 lakh bales. The agency predicts higher global cotton production, with larger crops in Brazil, India, and Australia compensating for slightly lower production in Argentina. The global trade outlook is expected to decline slightly to 43.5 million bales but remains over 6.0 million bales higher compared to the previous year. Brazil's increased exportable supplies offset lower shipments from the US, Australia, and India.
Global ending stocks are projected to be over 1.7 million bales higher, reaching 94.5 million bales, primarily due to lower consumption. The forecast for the US season-average farm price for 2023/24 is slightly lower at 76 cents, while India's benchmark cotton Guj 29mm variety was quoted at ₹55,600 per candy (356 kg of processed cotton).
