India is projected to witness a 43 per cent rise in extreme rainfall events and a two-fold increase in heatwave days across key urban centres by 2030 due to climate change, according to a new study released on Monday, June 10, 2025. Cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Thane, Surat, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are expected to be particularly vulnerable to these extreme weather conditions, as prolonged heatwaves are likely to trigger more erratic and intense rainfall patterns.
The study, conducted by IPE Global and Esri India, underscores the growing climate risks facing the country. It estimates that eight out of every ten districts in India are likely to experience multiple instances of extreme rainfall by 2030.
Launched at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, held ahead of the 62nd session of the UNFCCC’s subsidiary bodies in Bonn, Germany, the study reveals that India has already seen a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days over the past three decades during the March to September period. Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold surge in such extreme heat days.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, noted that climate change has already exposed India to increasing instances of extreme heat and rainfall, and the situation is expected to worsen by 2030. The study projects that around 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will face a significant rise in heat stress and extreme rainfall events, often accompanied by storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms.
Mohanty said climate phenomena like El Niño and La Niña are expected to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surges in climate extremes such as floods, cyclones and storm surges. He called for hyper-granular risk assessments and the establishment of climate-risk observatories as a national priority to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and infrastructure from the growing threats of climate change.
The findings show that states including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur are already facing the twin challenges of heat stress and erratic rainfall. Over 80% of the districts in these states are projected to be impacted by 2030.
Coastal regions are particularly vulnerable, with the study estimating that 69% of coastal districts will experience extended summer-like discomfort during the monsoon season (June to September) by 2030. This figure is projected to rise to 79% by 2040.
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, emphasised that the study aligns with the recent global push to address the escalating impacts of extreme heat, as highlighted by the United Nations Secretary-General's "Call to Action on Extreme Heat." He noted that India, like many countries in the Global South, faces the dual challenge of improving living conditions while adapting to climate change. The study reflects ongoing efforts to transform environmental risks into opportunities and positions India to become a global leader in climate solutions.
According to the report, areas experiencing more frequent heatwaves are also recording a higher number of erratic rainfall events. This pattern is particularly evident in the coastal belts on both the east and west coasts. The districts that are currently climate hotspots are expected to undergo a 63% change in land-use and land-cover patterns under the business-as-usual scenario, due to microclimatic shifts triggered by deforestation, loss of wetlands and mangrove encroachments.
According to Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, extreme heat and rainfall events are no longer rare but have become more frequent and intense. He emphasized the need for a data-driven approach rooted in spatial intelligence to address these challenges. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, he noted, is essential for integrating and analyzing complex datasets, which can aid in building climate-resilient infrastructure and improving disaster preparedness. Kumar also highlighted that GIS tools are already contributing to national initiatives such as PARIVESH, the Jal Jeevan Mission, and the Clean Ganga project by converting climate data into actionable insights.
The study recommends the urgent creation of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to assess and monitor chronic and acute climate risks at a hyper-local level. This observatory would use advanced technologies such as Earth Observation data and predictive climate models to provide real-time insights, helping governments, businesses and citizens make informed decisions.
It also suggests introducing climate risk financing instruments and appointing dedicated ‘heat-risk champions’ at the district level to coordinate and implement heat mitigation strategies through local disaster management authorities.
The IPE Global–Esri India study emphasizes the need for hyper-localised data and climate modelling, arguing that reliance on global models alone will not be sufficient. The study concludes that identifying and estimating climatic risks at the district level is crucial to climate-proof lives, infrastructure, livelihoods, and the economy.
