According to a new climate risk analysis, flooding is the greatest threat to 14 Indian states. That equates to approximately one billion people, or one in every eight people on the planet; each state is equivalent to a mid-sized or small country ranging from Pakistan to the United Kingdom to Venezuela. Over half of the top 100 are dominated by China, the United States, and India.
The report 'Gross Domestic Climate Risk' is complicated, given the task at hand, which is to serve as a metric for banks, investors, businesses, and policymakers. Given the amount of capital invested in the assets at risk in these states, it is an attempt to price the risk of global warming in financial markets. It evaluates the physical climate risk to the built environment in over 2,600 locations worldwide in 2050. The greater the risk, the more developed the state. It was developed by the Australia-based Cross Dependency Initiative, or XDI, which counts global banks and corporations among its clients; it is a member of the Climate Risk Group, which quantifies the costs of climate change.
Flooding is only one of eight climate-related hazards considered in the report. Riverine and surface flooding, which is the world's most serious threat to the built environment, coastal inundation (coastal flooding), extreme heat, forest fire, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind, and freeze-thaw are among them. Another notable feature of India is that, according to the global heatmap, it is one of the few countries where the majority of the territory is under threat.
The report's authors explain why: India has the second-highest number of states in the top 100 of the ranking for aggregated damage in 2050, after China. The top states have the following characteristics: they are large, and they have built infrastructure, industry, cities, and towns that are especially vulnerable to extreme weather and climate change hazards, particularly surface, and riverine flooding.
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Haryana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh are among the 14 Indian states ranked among the top 100 in the world for damage risk. Because the report focuses solely on the built environment, it excludes climate risks to agricultural production, biodiversity, and human well-being, among other things, but these risks are not diminished by the report's analysis.
The system calculates the damage to the built environment based on a scenario of global warming of 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century using global climate models, local weather and environmental data, and engineering archetypes.
