The next USDA report will be released on March 9th and all eyes are now keen over the US/global soybean ending stocks projections. Therefore, in the upcoming release, most will focus on what revisions are being done in the projected carryover stocks of US soybean, and also for the other major supplying nations. In the February report the USDA had reported higher exports and lower ending stocks globally.
World’s soybean exports were raised by 0.6 million tons to 169.7 million on higher exports from the United States and Russia. Higher imports for Argentina were partially offset by reductions for the EU-27+UK, Canada, and Bangladesh. Global soybean stocks were reduced 1.0 million tons to 83.4 million as lower stocks in the United States and Brazil more than offset higher stocks in Argentina. Soybean in India as well as other leading markets has rallied on the upward side since November 2020, and current fundamentals still convey that there is scope of further appreciation in the global price levels in near future.
The major global soybean supplies are tight on soybeans therefore it will be important to asses that whether there will be scope for increasing US or world’s export estimate in the upcoming report, and further lowering of the US or global soybean carryover. Last month’s estimate for US soybean carryover was 120 million bushels.
At present the market is estimating this number at 117 million bushels. Unlike February report, when most were expecting a cut in the soybean ending stocks and increase in export outlook, the majority is not sure of the probable changes from demand and supply perspective, this time. One has to watch out whether the forthcoming release has some surprise, in terms of the unexpected revisions.
