According to the first estimate released by the trade body AISTA on Thursday, sugar production in India, the world's second largest producer after Brazil, will increase by 2.90 percent to 31.9 million tonnes in the current marketing year 2021-22.
The overall availability of sugar in the nation is expected to be 40.2 million tonnes in the current marketing year, somewhat lower than the previous year, with an estimated output of 31.9 million tonnes plus an opening stock of 8.3 million tonnes with mills.
However, the country's sugar supply would be sufficient to fulfill domestic consumption, which is expected to reach 27 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year, according to the report.
The sugar marketing season lasts from October to September.
In terms of exports, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) estimates that outbound shipments will be 6 million tonnes in the current 2021-22 marketing year, down from 7.2 million tonnes the previous year.
"Actual exports in 2021-22 would be determined by the level of domestic sugar prices vis-a-vis international sugar prices," the trade body stated.
According to the AISTA's first projection, the country's sugar output in the 2021-22 marketing year would be 31.9 million tonnes, up from 31 million tonnes the previous year.
Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the country's biggest sugar producing state, are expected to produce 10.5 million tonnes of the sweetener in the 2021-22 marketing year, down from 11.1 million tonnes the previous year, out of the total predicted sugar output for this year.
However, production in Maharashtra, the country's second largest sugar producing state, is expected to be higher at 11.5 million tonnes, compared to 10.7 million tonnes in the same period, while production in Karnataka, the country's third largest sugar producing state, is expected to be 4.8 million tonnes, compared to 4.7 million tonnes in the same period.
According to the data, sugar output in Gujarat is expected to be slightly higher at 1.1 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes in Tamil Nadu and 3 million tonnes in other states.
"The aforesaid estimates of 31.9 million tonnes of sugar production do not include sucrose diversion for ethanol generation," AISTA stated. It is estimated that 3.1 million tonnes of sucrose would be diverted for ethanol production from B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice in the current marketing year.
According to AISTA, domestic sugar consumption is expected to rise by 2% to 27 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year, up from 26.5 million tonnes the previous year.
The first estimate has been arrived after taking into account the estimated sugarcane production, sugar production, recovery rate, and drawl rate achieved so far in the current marketing year, as well as the likely diversion of sucrose for the production of ethanol from B-heavy molasses, according to the statement.
Sugarcane crushing is underway, according to AISTA, who also stated that a second output estimate for the 2021-22 marketing year will be released by the end of February or early March.
