It was another impressive week for persons dealing in the wholesale or retail business of Chana since most of the physical trades could be completed above the previous week’s offers. The Mandi prices could sustain higher mainly due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products like Chana Dal and Besan or the Chana flour.
The average prices of NCDEX specified graded in Delhi and Bikaner markets have appreciated by Rs.100-125/qtl during the recently ended week and in Akola prices are running Rs.50/qtl higher, week on week.
Speaking about a longer perspective i.e. for next few months, upside movement of prices shall be restricted on the back of approaching arrival season and reports of a better seeding pace. The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year.
The near term factors however indicate that prices are most likely to remain upwards in the forthcoming week. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. There is regular demand in the Chana products due to Ramadan season and approaching Holi festival. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Therefore there is no supply pressure in the market presently.
In context to the futures market of Chana, the technical charts now convey convincing signals regarding prices to remain strong for next few trading sessions. Currently the April futures contract is traded actively in the NCDEX. Based on the short term charts view - April Chana at NCDEX, which closed near 5035 on Friday, is expected to move towards 5450-5500 zone in coming days. Also, prices for the same are unlikely to fall below 4800 for next 5-7 days at least.
