Modern agriculture depends heavily on chemical fertilisers to sustain high yields and meet global food demand. However, the world’s reliance on a handful of fertiliser producers and vulnerable supply chains has created a fragile system, where any disruption can ripple through the entire food economy. A recent modelling exercise by the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 has sounded the alarm: a two-year disruption in fertiliser supply chains could raise global food prices by as much as 13%, significantly straining affordability and availability.
Simulating a Shock Scenario
Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, researchers simulated consecutive disruptions in the global supply of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) fertilisers. The results are striking. Even a one-year disruption could increase the FAO Food Price Index by 6%, while a two-year shock could trigger a 13% surge over baseline levels. This would push basic food items out of reach for millions, particularly in low-income countries.
Crop Yields and Farmer Margins at Risk
Lower fertiliser availability would reduce yields across key staples such as rice, wheat, and maize. As input prices climb, smallholder farmers may find it harder to maintain profitability, further weakening food security in regions dependent on subsistence farming.
Subsidy Elimination Cuts Fertiliser Use and Emissions, But Hits Production
One alternative scenario modeled in the Outlook examines the impact of eliminating fertiliser subsidies in India, a country where such subsidies form the backbone of crop economics. Removing the subsidy led to reduced domestic production, increased imports, and a significant decrease in fertiliser use. Interestingly, this also resulted in a 7 MtCO2-eq reduction in global emissions.
A Climate Opportunity Hidden in the Crisis?
The scenario points to a silver lining: fertiliser shocks, while economically painful, could nudge countries toward more sustainable nutrient management practices. Organic fertilisers, precision application, and composting emerge as adaptive strategies that reduce both cost and emissions.
The Outlook encourages nations to invest in resilient agricultural systems—ones that reduce dependency on chemical inputs and global supply chains. Decentralised production, nutrient recycling, and localised extension support are suggested pathways.
Fertiliser disruptions are no longer hypothetical. Given geopolitical volatility and supply chain vulnerabilities, governments must treat these scenarios as actionable risks. Strategic policy shifts and sustainable input alternatives could turn a looming crisis into an opportunity for long-term reform.
