Seafood expert Gorjan Nikolik predicted in Rabobank's Global Aquaculture Update, that “Both farmed salmon and farmed shrimp have a very bright future; fishmeal volumes are expected to be comparable to last year.”
Shrimp Has a Bright Future
"Assuming no further cost increases, the shrimp sector is likely to continue expanding supply in H1 2022, driven by strong demand and market prices," according to Nikolik.
He thinks that continuing production gains in India and Ecuador, in particular, will fuel this expansion, after remarkable growth rates in both nations in 2021. Ecuador's shrimp output reached 1 million tonnes last year, according to the study, making it the biggest year in the country's history.
"Shrimp demand revived substantially in 2021, driven by the United States, but also by Europe and China's slow recovery. Demand increase will continue in 2022 if the world economy continues to recover from Covid, according to the research.
Shrimp imports to the United States increased by 17% in value and 9% in volume in the first 10 months of 2021, according to the data. In the first ten months of 2021, EU imports of frozen tropical shrimp increased by 8.5 percent in value and 13.9 percent in volume. Although China bought fewer frozen shrimp in 2021, the report predicts that imports would rise in 2022. And, given the strength of these main markets, growers are likely to harvest more shrimp this year.
The report states, "Taken together, these three markets will assist to solidify the surge in demand for farmed shrimp."
"At this time, there are no new ailments that might derail the industry's growth." Despite greater expenses, high prices make shrimp farming extremely profitable, which encourages supply expansion. Even if prices moderate slightly in early 2022, we expect substantial supply growth to continue," it says.
A Thriving Salmon Industry
According to the research, following a drop in last year's salmon output in Chile, the country's farmers are already on the mend in terms of harvest numbers, although it will take a few years. This is due in part to the fact that, thanks to cheap pricing, the country sold virtually all of its 2020 inventory last year, following a sales slump induced by the original Covid pandemic.
Despite projections of a 3-4 percent rise in harvest quantities, the analysis predicts that Chilean supply growth in 2022 would be negative as a result of the absence of stored salmon. Furthermore, if the algal blooms that have wreaked havoc on the industry in previous summers and autumns occur again in 2022, growth in the first half of the year may be negligible, according to Nikolik.
Meanwhile, Norway had an unexpectedly robust 2021, with harvest quantities increasing by 10.9 percent owing to good biological performance.
According to the research, however, this growth will not be continued in the following year; with fewer fish in the water, Nikolik forecasts a supply reduction in the first six months and growth rates of just 1 to 2% for the entire year.
The combination of low growth in Chile and Norway, as well as strong demand for salmon in North America and Europe's retail sectors, means that, unless Omicron causes major lockdowns, "the expected low global supply growth for 2022 should support high prices, possibly the highest prices we have seen since 2016, when the industry experienced a supply contraction," according to Nikolik.
Fishmeal Prices Are Expected To Rise Somewhat
The report also looked at the worldwide fishmeal trade, noting that Peru had a 37 percent increase in fish meal output in 2021, following a week in 2020. Meanwhile, Europe, the United States, and South Africa had smaller pelagic limits and hence generated less fishmeal. As a consequence, worldwide supply remained around the same as it was in 2020.
Looking ahead, comparable output levels are anticipated to be attained in Peru, since la Nina or neutral climatic conditions are forecast — at least in the first half of 2022. Meanwhile, Nikolik anticipates a resurgence in European and American supply when their respective capelin and menhaden limits are boosted.
"This should result in a minor boost in world supply," Nikolik says, "but only if Peru maintains its high production levels."
The study goes on to say that 83 percent of Peruvian fish meal was shipped to China in the first ten months of the year, up from 77 percent in 2020. China took advantage of the abundant Peruvian supply to replenish its depleted stockpiles. According to Nikolik, this, combined with a slowdown in China's pig herd rebuilding in the first half of the year, is anticipated to decrease Chinese demand for fish meal in the first half of the year.
Fish meal prices are expected to stay largely steady in 2022, thanks to a combination of restricted increases in output and relatively high commodity costs.
However, the paper notes that the price ratio of fish meal to soymeal has risen from a historic low in early 2021, implying that fish meal will be less competitive – albeit still very inexpensive compared to pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a more balanced market in 1H 2022, with Chinese demand expected to cool slightly," the report concludes.
Source: thefishsite.com
