Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has projected a largely positive outlook for global food commodity markets in its latest Food Outlook report, forecasting record production for key crops including rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds. However, the agency also warned of increasing risks from extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainties that could threaten food security in the coming months.
According to the FAO, global maize production is expected to rise sharply, particularly in the United States, where a 6% increase is anticipated due to expanded sowings. Brazil and the European Union are also expected to post solid gains.
Rice production is forecast to grow by 0.9% to reach a new record of 551.5 million tonnes, mainly driven by increased output in Asia. Strong demand from Africa and rising exports from India and South America are likely to push international rice trade to a record 60.5 million tonnes.
Wheat production is set to increase modestly, with India poised for an all-time high harvest due to expanded planting, and the EU expected to see a 13% boost thanks to improved weather conditions. However, per capita food consumption of wheat may decline globally, while rice consumption, especially in low-income, food-deficit countries, is projected to increase by around 2%.
The report also notes that the global food import bill is projected to rise by 3.6 percent in 2024, reaching nearly USD 2.1 trillion. Import costs have surged for tropical beverages like coffee, tea and cocoa, up by over 29 percent, as well as for fruits, vegetables, and meat.
Meanwhile, the cost of importing cereals dropped by 4.6%. In 2025, trade tensions and policy uncertainties could influence food prices and import volumes, particularly for sensitive items like tropical beverages and livestock-based products.
One of the most pressing threats highlighted in the report is the spread of avian influenza (HPAI), which continues to disrupt the poultry and egg sectors worldwide. Since 2022, over 173 million chickens have been affected in the United States alone, leading to outbreak control costs of more than USD 1.4 billion.
Brazil, the world’s third-largest poultry exporter, recently reported its first commercial case of HPAI. While poultry meat exports have remained stable, egg production and prices continue to experience volatility, with global trade volumes in eggs nearly doubling in 2024.
The report also takes a closer look at shifts in global fertilizer trade, noting Russia’s growing dominance in exports. Fertilizer prices have dropped significantly since peaking in 2022, but affordability remains a concern. Other sections examine the rise in seafood fraud due to complex global supply chains and the potential impact of decarbonising shipping on developing nations dependent on food imports.
While the FAO remains optimistic about overall food production, it underscores the urgent need for vigilance and resilience in the face of increasing global uncertainties.
