The Centre is planning to forecast crop productivity and yield every month in order to get regular predictive analysis on the expected demand-supply situation & its impact on prices. According to government officials, the current system of making forecasts every four months is not enough. They said often, prices of sensitive farm commodities start rising, giving no time or opportunity to the government to quickly balance the market.
Take for instance, last year, prices of onion started rising rapidly after floods severely destroyed the crop, but it was too late for the government to act because it takes a long time for imports to be contracted, shipped & provided to retailers and vendors.
For this, the government will use an econometric model based real time information system that uses variables like temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, prices, water level in reservoirs & past practices to predict yields and output of different crops. Officials added that the new system of predictive analysis will give a reasonably correct picture, with a deviation of 5 to 10 percent.
