For 2020-21, the World Demand and Supply projections of Oilseeds and Soybean include lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The USDA has projected global oilseed production at 595.7 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month. World oilseed trade for 2020/21 is projected at 191.8 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, and world oilseed ending stocks are projected at 97.8 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Global soybean end stocks also estimated lower at: 856.4 million tonnes vs last month’s projection of 865.2 million tonnes. All the comparisons are based on November month expected numbers.
The ending of US soybean is expected to be lower versus previous month’s estimate as per the USDA estimate. The latest report indicates lowering of US soybean end stock estimates although not as much as per industry expectations and U.S. exports projections were unchanged. Soybean production possibility for Argentina remains lower as per the report and Brazil’s production expectation was unchanged versus previous month. China’s import is expected similar to as given in the November report.
Brazil’s crop is now estimated at 134.451 million tons, compared to 134.953 million last month on the dry weather in southern growing areas, but the crop is still better than previous year. Export shipments for the marketing year to date are 82.9 million tons, compared to the total commitment of 83.6 million, potentially rising to 85 million next marketing year, which starts in February. U.S. export sales were up week on the week with China taking most of soybeans from the US. As per China’s National Bureau of Statistics soybean production in 2020 was 19.6 million tons, compared to 18.1 million in 2019.
In terms of average prices for the coming year, the Agriculture Department of the US has pegged soybean and soybean product prices higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushel, up 15 cents, while soybean meal price is projected at $370 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 36 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents with cash prices reaching the highest level in the past six years. World soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 362.1 million.
