Global food commodity prices continued their upward trend in February, driven primarily by increases in sugar, dairy, and vegetable oil prices, according to the latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks international price fluctuations of globally traded food commodities, rose by 1.6 percent from January to reach 127.1 points. This marks an 8.2 percent increase compared to February 2024.
The FAO Sugar Price Index recorded the sharpest increase, climbing 6.6 percent to 118.5 points after three consecutive months of decline. This rise was fueled by concerns over tightening global supplies for the 2024/25 season, particularly due to reduced production in India and adverse weather conditions in Brazil. Dairy prices also saw a notable jump, with the FAO Dairy Price Index increasing by 4.0 percent to 148.7 points. Strong global demand outpacing production led to higher prices for key dairy products such as cheese and whole milk powder.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose by 2.0 percent in February to 156.0 points, reflecting a significant 29.1 percent increase from the previous year. This surge was driven by seasonal supply constraints in Southeast Asia and strong demand from the biodiesel sector. Meanwhile, the FAO Cereal Price Index recorded a modest increase of 0.7 percent to 112.6 points, as wheat prices increased due to tightening supplies in Russia and concerns over crop conditions in Eastern Europe and North America. Maize prices also increased, driven by reduced supply in Brazil and strong U.S. export demand. In contrast, global rice prices dropped by 6.8 percent due to ample supplies and weaker import demand.
The FAO Meat Price Index remained relatively stable, averaging 118.0 points, with a slight decline of 0.1 percent. While poultry and pig meat prices fell due to abundant supply, bovine and ovine meat prices held steady amid strong global demand.
In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, FAO forecasts global wheat production to reach 796 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting a 1 percent increase from the previous year. The rise is expected to be driven by expanded wheat sowings in the European Union, particularly in France and Germany. However, adverse weather conditions in Eastern Europe and excessive rainfall in Western regions may affect yields. In the U.S., wheat acreage is projected to increase, but yields could decline slightly due to ongoing drought conditions.
Global rice production is expected to reach a record 543 million tonnes in 2024/25, supported by favorable growing conditions in India, Cambodia, and Myanmar. FAO has also revised its global cereal production estimate for 2024 to 2,842 million tonnes, reflecting a slight increase from 2023.
Looking ahead, FAO’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation report highlights regional variations in food production. While Southern Africa is expected to see a rebound in crop yields due to favorable weather, prolonged dry conditions in North Africa may dampen cereal output. In Asia, wheat production is forecast to grow in the Far East, but Near East Asia faces challenges due to low rainfall. In Latin America, mixed weather conditions are impacting maize production, with potential disease outbreaks posing a risk in Argentina.
The FAO report also emphasizes that 45 countries, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and the Caribbean, and one in Europe, are in need of external food assistance. Persistent conflicts and food insecurity remain key drivers of hunger, with regions such as Gaza and Sudan facing IPC Phase 5 levels of acute food insecurity.
As global challenges continue, ensuring food security remains a critical priority for policymakers and humanitarian organizations worldwide.
