As incomes rise in developing countries, the consumption of meat, fish, and dairy products is expected to increase significantly over the next decade, according to a new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). However, experts caution that to meet growing demand while addressing hunger and reducing emissions, a substantial boost in agricultural productivity will be crucial.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, released on July 15, 2025, presents a detailed forecast for global agriculture and food markets. One of its key findings reveals that global per capita intake of animal-based calories is projected to rise by 6% over the next ten years. This growth will be even more pronounced in lower-middle-income countries, where intake is expected to surge by 24%, nearly four times the global average.
“This is good news for nutrition in many parts of the developing world,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu. “But we must go further, especially in low-income countries where per capita intake of animal-source foods remains well below healthy diet benchmarks.”
Currently, individuals in low-income nations consume an average of just 143 kilocalories per day from animal sources, less than half the 300 kcal benchmark considered adequate by the FAO. In contrast, middle-income countries are steadily catching up as diets diversify in response to rising incomes.
The report also forecasts that global agricultural and fish production will grow by 14% by 2034, driven primarily by productivity gains in middle-income countries. Production of meat, dairy, and eggs is expected to increase by 17%, with livestock inventories expanding by 7%. However, this growth could result in a 6% rise in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the same period.
Despite the increase in emissions, the report highlights a positive trend: carbon intensity per unit of output is gradually declining due to technological improvements and more efficient farming practices. Still, it warns that without deeper reforms and greater investment, global food systems will struggle to meet sustainability and nutrition targets.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasized the importance of maintaining open and stable global food markets. “We have the tools to end hunger,” he said. “But governments must support farmers, foster innovation, and build food systems that are more resilient and inclusive.”
The report calls for enhanced international cooperation, especially given that 22% of all calories are projected to cross international borders before final consumption. Trade will be essential for balancing food surpluses and deficits, stabilizing prices, and improving global food security.
Regions like Sub-Saharan Africa illustrate both the challenges and potential for improvement. While the region’s cattle herd is three times larger than North America’s, it produces significantly less output per animal. Enhancing farm practices and providing access to affordable, scalable technologies could unlock considerable productivity gains.
Among other trends, the report notes that global cereal production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, driven primarily by yield improvements, as land expansion slows. By 2034, 40% of cereals will be used for direct human consumption, 33% for animal feed, and the remainder for industrial and biofuel uses.
Global demand for biofuels is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, driven primarily by increases in Brazil, India and Indonesia. This rising demand will continue to influence crop allocation and global grain trade patterns.
According to report, India and Southeast Asia are expected to play a leading role in future consumption trends, contributing nearly 40% of global consumption growth by 2034. In contrast, health-conscious shifts in high-income countries are projected to reduce per capita intake of fats and sweeteners.
